Economic Data and Market Highlights
Global equities rose during the week as the MSCI All Country World index rose 1.46%, but the market breadth was narrow as tech and communication services stocks continued to drive returns. ADP and the Bureau of Labor Statistics(BLS) both released employment data. The ADP number was weaker than expected, with just 37,000 jobs added by small businesses versus a consensus of its lowest level since August 2022. The BLS result was better than expected. The BLS did revise the previous month down from 177k to 147k, with health care and hospitality sectors seeing the largest increase. The government sector saw the largest losses. According to the Challenger survey results, the tech sector saw the fewest layoffs.
The 30-year yield dropped mid-week from 4.98% to 4.89%, fueled by weakness in job growth and speculation that the Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) may be revised as the Senate began its review, with key senators pushing back on rising deficits expected as a result of the bill in its current form. The BBB seemed to also lead to the very public divorce between President Trump and Elon Musk, which continues to develop as of the writing of this note. Of the G7 nations, the US has the largest deficit as a percentage of GDP.
Earlier this week, the ECB cut rates as global inflation eased. The US will report its inflation result when CPI is released on Wednesday. The chart below shows the countries that have reported May inflation data thus far, along with the change since December 2024.
The Past Week’s Notable US data points (with revisions)
The Upcoming Week’s notable US data points
Source: Morningstar
Data Source: Financial News London, Financial Times, Morningstar, MarketWatch, Standard & Poor’s, and the Wall Street Journal.
Authors:
Jon Chesshire
Michael McNamara