Economic Data and Market Highlights
Volatility spiked on Friday, erasing gains made in the previous four days as Israel and Iran traded airstrikes. Subsequently, the S&P 500 dropped 1.12% while the Dow dropped 1.79%. Oil prices also spiked, reaching $78 per barrel but then backing off to $73 by market close.
Higher prices may have an impact on Russia’s balance sheet, which has been subject to an increasing deficit in 2025. The US and the other G7 countries have continued to increase and impose sanctions, including price caps and revoking insurance of ships carrying Russian crude. The most recent occurred on January 10th when the US imposed sanctions on ships that were transferring Russian crude by hindering the shadow fleet, those ships that take on Russian Crude via a transfer at sea.
Earlier in the week, the US and China announced a trade deal that will allow the US access to rare earths and magnets, materials critical for auto production and the defense industry. In exchange, the US would reopen access to US colleges. Tariffs presumable will remain but at 55% of goods from China and 10% for goods from the US. Final details remain are expected to be worked out in the coming weeks. According to CNBC, China has a firm grip over rare earths globally producing roughly 60% and processing about 90%.
The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady during the June 17–18 meeting but may signal possible rate cuts starting in September. May’s labor report showed modest job growth (+139k), while initial jobless claims rose to an eight-month high of 248,000. Inflation moderated in May, with core CPI at 2.8% year-over-year. PPI ticked up to 2.6%, suggesting some upstream price pressure. Markets now price in 50–75 bps in rate cuts by year-end. This stance has come under fire by the current administration as it continues to place pressure on the borrowing costs of the US government.
The Past Week’s Notable US Data Points (with revisions)
The Upcoming Week’s Notable US Data Points
Source: Morningstar
Data Source: Financial News London, Financial Times, Morningstar, MarketWatch, Standard & Poor’s, and the Wall Street Journal.
Authors:
Jon Chesshire
Michael McNamara