Weekly Market Commentary – August 11, 2025

Economic Data and Market Highlights

Global equity markets rebounded over 2% for the week (MSCI ACWI +2.55%). The surge within the S&P 500 (+2.44%) was largely driven by tech-oriented names, with the Information Tech sector rising (4.28%), Consumer Discretionary names 3.82%, and Communication Services 3.30%. Those names are driving the return on the benchmark. Comparatively, the S&P 500 Equal Weighted benchmark was0.79% for the week. Apollo posted a notable chart related to the concentration within the S&P 500 and those Tech/AI-related names driving the valuation.

While valuations still remain a concern, earnings revisions on a share-weighted basis have increased over the most recent earnings season, according to IBES.

But dividends for the S&P 500 have decreased to levels not seen since the early 2000s.

The US administration accused India of effectively financing Russia’s war in Ukraine by purchasing oil from Moscow. India imports roughly 85% of its oil, mostly from Russia, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. As a result, the U.S. administration implemented a 25% punitive tariff on top of the existing 25% tariff.

On August 6–7, 2025, Trump unveiled a plan for a 100% tariff on imported semiconductors. Crucially, this would not apply to firms manufacturing—or committed to manufacturing—in the U.S. Subsequently, Apple pledged $100 billion in U.S. investment. TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix also benefit due to existing or planned U.S. production. Firms failing to uphold manufacturing commitments could face retroactive charges. Major chip stocks rallied—TSMC up (4.9%), others like Samsung and Hynix also advanced. The Nasdaq-100 rose (1.3%), the S&P 500 gained 0.7%, and Apple shares jumped over 5%.

Semiconductors are undoubtedly playing a key role in maintaining a competitive advantage for the U.S. The spending for data centers will soon surpass that of office buildings in the U.S. Power generation will also play a key role, and nuclear is seen as a viable possibility. The latest power plant to come online was the Alvin W. Vogtle Electric Generating Plant in Georgia, the first unit since 2016 in the U.S. Nine-three units are operated by fifty-four utilities in the U.S., with the average age being 42 years old.

The Past Week’s Notable US data points (with revisions)

The Upcoming Week’s notable US data points

 

Source: Morningstar

 

Data Source:  Jim Bianco Research, Charles Schwab and Co, Financial News London, Financial Times, Kobelessi Letter Morningstar, MarketWatch, Standard & Poor’s, and the Wall Street Journal.

 

Authors:

Jon Chesshire

Michael McNamara