Economic Data and Market Highlights
US markets had an abbreviated trading week as S&P 500 again rose to new highs surging 3.36%. Most of the headlines were dominated by the passage through Congress of the H.R.1 – One Big Beautiful Bill Act and signed into law by Trump on July 4th, but employment data played a part in market reaction.
Despite the shortened trading week, a wealth of employment data was released. The JOLTS data was released on July 1st. The survey released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed an uptick versus the forecast (7.769 mil versus 7.32 mil). For a job to be considered open, it needs to meet all three of the following criteria:
- The position exists, and there is work required for that position
- The job could start within 30 days
- There is active recruiting for that job OUTSIDE of the establishment.
The U6 rate declined slightly from 6.7% to 6.6% and measures the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment.
The Challenger and ADP results were released on Wednesday with the Challenger result showing 47,999 cuts, down 2% year over year. The ADP result non-farm result showed a decline of 33k jobs. On Thursday, the BLS released its non-farm payrolls which topped expectations (144k vs 111k) but government hiring at the state and municipal level was the key driver of growth. Job growth in the private sector which seems to echo the ADP result, which only tracks private employment, seems to indicate some uncertainty related to hiring. The positive number all but assured the market that there is zero chance for a rate cut at the July Fed meeting.
Mortgage rates ticked down for the week as the average 30-year mortgage rate settled at 6.69% down from 6.88%. Mortgage applications rose 2.7% week over week.
The markets switch back to trade in the upcoming week and the 60-day pause of tariffs comes to a close on July 9th. Trump noted that a series of letters will be sent over the weekend with some countries’ tariffs being increased to over 50% if a deal is not reached. Bessent noted on Sunday that several letters had already been signed and will go out on Monday although targets were not mentioned.
The Past Week’s Notable US data points (with revisions)
The Upcoming Week’s notable US data points
Source: Morningstar
Data Source: Bloomberg, The US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Charles Schwab & Co, MarketWatch, Standard & Poor’s, and the Wall Street Journal.
Authors:
Jon Chesshire
Michael McNamara